Dr. Saket Raman
Sr. Assistant Prof/Media Coordinator
Mr. Abhishek Kr
Sahu
Scholar,
Amity School of Communication
Amity
University Rajasthan
Abstract
Politics
is an art of Governance. How………? Politics word has been derived from the Greek
word “polis” which means state as according to J.W. Garner “political science
begins and ends with the state” and Laski says “The study of politics concerns
itself with the life of man in relation to organized states.” So, the state
occupies the Centre position of politics. How Politics can be defined as art it
can be because it involves negotiation, persuasion and compromise. Politics is
a responsible human activity. It is an art because how politics affect public its due to speeches, writing and
conveying political ideas through various other mediums and it is just not only
about having power just for once, but for
long range of Time, it is the use of
such concepts to manipulate the
opinions of the public, whether that particular performed
well or not, it is about occupying a throne for a long time, it’s about making
one’s own weakness its
strength, it is an art. Indian politics are very different from other because with the
population of 132 crores every
business survives and so the businessman it means political parties too, and that is the reason of existence of so
many regional parties, it’s a democratic country. This paper aims to find How
BJP manages to
score such a landscape victory in Uttar Pradesh in spite of having two regional
parties with great hold on their respective community. The paper also explains how congress is failing
to polarize vote of minorities and gives a model for congress to revive.
Key words: Politics, Elections,
Pol. Parties, Trend analysis, Strategy
Introduction
The main characteristics of Indian Politics is that it keeps
on changing with the passage of time. The Politics of India has undergone many
changes since Independence and can be divided into two phases first after the
Indira Gandhi and Phase II begun when Narendra Modi came in Power. Acquiring
Power has never been so tough for political parties but holding it has always
been a tough job and having BJP in central it has now become the game of do or
die. Some parties are now on the edge of becoming extinct such as Congress once
being the dominant party and single National Party is now existing in only few
states of the Country other being the RJD whose lifeline was Nitish Kumar.
Having a CBI excuse gave a reason to break the alliance in a day and then what
was left Nitish joined hands with Susheel Modi and became the ally to BJP,
Nitish puts himself wrong as before in 2014 when leaving BJP in the mid of
elections he gave a reason that was-
“Modi Ji as the
Candidate for PM” and now with the Narendra Modi as the PM of the Country he
again joined hands with BJP. BJP is now becoming the dominant party after its
victory over 2014 General elections it is establishing remarkable victory over
victory in States, although they jumped from the speed breaker of Bihar and
landed to the throne of Uttar Pradesh acquiring 327 seats out of 403 which is
the largest victory by any party since Independence. It is amazing to see the
consecutive victory state by state of BJP with Narendra Modi and Amit Shah as
Leaders as once BJP faced a lot of criticism over its Hindutva agenda and still
facing that kind of image which is troubling opposition to think about their
strategy. Some are so frustrated that they are even blaming EVM machine for
victory of BJP but yes, it is a matter of fact that BJP won Muslim majority
regions in Uttar Pradesh having over 40% Muslim population in Azamgarh and
Kanth constituencies which cannot be ignored. It is to be noted that BJP has
acquired some different and unique strategy for Uttar Pradesh State Assembly
Election which was a successful and other parties were not even close to that.
This paper describes how BJP won Uttar Pradesh Election in addition to that
their new Strategy, this paper also explain why Congress is losing their trust
upon minority section as once being the most powerful alternative for them. SP
and BSP being the most powerful regional parties and once played an effective
role in national politics are now diminishing. In case of Akhilesh Yadav, he
had some learning from BJP strategy on how to be on media but handling media is
not a cup of tea for all so Akhilesh started so called conflict in his party
which at the end reached to breakage of party into two so it can be said that
Akhilesh set fire in his own house which provided warm to others in the winters
of elections. Mayawati also tried to change their members to specifically
target Muslim voters such as Mukhtar Ansari and succeeded but not on that
level. It is amazing to see such a great change in Indian Politics and can be
said that Politics in India is now been Unfolding. A pattern was set by Indira
Gandhi which was having majority already on their side only they have to
control minority section, this strategy was followed by Congress and after that
many other regional parties but BJP has now come up with a new and fresh
strategy according to the fresh voters which is by only focusing on majority
and sidelining the minority as Election is all about winning. Politics has now become
a firm and should have a slogan “new
thinking new possibilities” because as per seeing the politics new
strategies new models are coming up to target their customers which are voters
here difference is that here Political Parties does not need any communication
strategy as they are themselves very well at this. Technology has also played
an important role in Election whether it is Social Media or mobile applications
made an easier platform to reach new and fresh voters. With increasing regional
parties, it now easy for BJP to polarize vote in a way to create confusion
among them which is explained later in this paper.
Objective
·
To
Study Political Strategy of BJP in UP Election.
·
To
Find out reasons of Congress Failure and to provide Suggestions for revival of
Party
·
To
Study Other Strategic Components utilized by Political Parties in India.
Hypothesis
Distribution of votes have been a major cause for resulting a
low score of regional parties.
Confusion between SP, BSP and Congress may have landed voters on the doorstep of BJP and party created within confusion of not having CM candidate to polarize vote of each and every caste.
Confusion between SP, BSP and Congress may have landed voters on the doorstep of BJP and party created within confusion of not having CM candidate to polarize vote of each and every caste.
Methodology
As per the
requirement of the research work analysis of secondary data was essential due
to that reason the researcher has collected different research work and
articles along with that researcher qualitatively analyzed different television
programs to develop a broad understanding about the research problem. The
method utilized in this study is Comparative
Analysis of Secondary Data. when data is analyzed which was collected by
other researcher it allows researcher to go through the area of interest
without collecting data in the field.
Uttar Pradesh Election
The Indian National Congress has dominated states politics
since Independence. The Time of 1900s was the era of regional parties rising to
power. Such as Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, they have resulted
major challenge for INC in the state. After Rajiv Gandhi’s remark over Ram
Mandir, Ayodhya Congress saw a drastic fall in the politics of state. The
Biggest victory which regional party scored was in 2007 when BSP came with
absolute majority. In 2009 General elections the INC won 21 seats, SP won 23
seats, BSP won 20 seats and the BJP won 10 seats.
Uttar Pradesh has always been the bucket of Prime Ministers
of the Country, Some Prominent Leaders of the state are former Ministers and CM
of the state such as Mulayam Singh Yadav, who also served as the Defense
Minister of India and Sonia Gandhi who is Member of Parliament from the state.
2017 Alliance
SP and Congress
The Alliance was almost cancelled as both the parties have
their own strong Reservations. There was part in the Indian National Congress
which felt that by colliding with political crucial party in the state may help
them to regain their presence in the state. Congress saw an opportunity where
they can make a secure return after 28 Years of banishment from the state. The
Samajwadi Party also saw a drastic change in the politics after 2012 Assembly
Elections, Alliance was the only way for them to secure their identity as a
secular party. Although a cold war was started from the beginning of the
planning as SP and Congress both are influenced by their Respective Family
Affairs.
And it happens, the Family affairs caused BJP a landslide
victory in the state while Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi came to the point of
Divorce. The Result shown that the collaboration was made by adjustment and
negotiation. The alliance failed to effect on ground despite of the powerful
campaigns led by strategists hired by both the parties. While Akhilesh was busy
playing the game for the Transfer of Power within the Party, The Public
transfered its Power to BJP and Congress added no points to the alliance as it
was already diminishing from the Politics.
Cause:
Uncontrolled Actions
Akhilesh crossed all the limits set by former supreme Mulayam
Singh Yadav of the party to create an image of youth icon with Digital
Technologies, He separated himself from the Lathi-carrier Yadav Musclemen, who had
been the oxygen for the Party but failed to counter anti-incumbency against the
Government.
People across different castes in State praised Akhilesh, as
for the good work done by him, but they were quick to point out other members
of the party who created terror in their respective region. They said there is
always disturbance in the law and order of the state whenever Samajwadi Party
comes to Power. People have attached some titles such as “Bhoomafia” and “Goondaraaj”
which are straightly associated with the party.
Akhilesh totally ignored its non-Yadav backward castes where
BJP acquired their attention. Samjawadi Party was always in the headlines in
Five Year of its tenure for the support to Yadav’s and Muslims which Resulted
in polarization of Hindu votes towards Bhartiya Janata Party.
The Samajwadi Parties tie up with Congress made a small
matter to its large component. The alliance was associated with the word that
both parties have come to attract Muslims, this image disturbed the mindset of
Loyal Yadav voters and other backward castes that the party can leave its
ideology to regain Power, seeing this it can be Possible that some sections of
Yadav community, core supporter of Samajwadi Party, voted for Bhartiya Janata
Party.
Reason:
A Supernatural Alliance
The Family matters of Samajwadi Party also influenced the
elections. Akhilesh won the battle and became the new supreme of the party but
not proved to be a son. Mulayam and Shivpal both felt that they have been
marginalized by the new King in the House, which forced Mulayam and his brother
not to campaign, and at one-point situation got worst when Shivpal fielded candidate’s
rebels to the official candidates in an attempt to bite back his nephew.
Akhilesh hoped that alliance could mix sugar in the water but
too much sugar sometimes Results in diabetes. Akhilesh felt that having
Congress by their side he will counter negative impressions along with Congress
to gain back his Brahmin votes which they lost to Bhartiya Janata Party.
But Akhilesh and Rahul both failed to understand that their
parties are ideologically different. The vote banks are different where SP
targets backward castes, Congress was hoping to target Brahmin voters with SP
on his side which was not Possible, it is a matter of fact that Brahmins are
anti-Yadav’s. This is why the alliance is regarded as a supernatural alliance.
For a while, there were symptoms that the Brahmins were
willing to give Congress another chance when Sheila Dixit was projected as
Chief Ministerial Candidate in Uttar Pradesh Elections but they changed their
mind after SP formed alliance with Congress. Best explanation was given by
Satyadev Mishra on website scroll.in, a resident of Mirzapur “I was going to
vote for the Congress but changed my Mind after seeing the alliance, it seems
that they have ganged up to circle one man that is……. Modi Ji. “
How it diminished:
Late, Very Late
One of the main reasons why the alliance failed to gain
support was the shortage of Time. Alliance was formed barely a few days before
elections were going to held which created a lot of confusion Among minorities.
This Time polls shown that Muslims were magnetized towards Bahujan Samaj Party
but after the alliance was formed they were confused whom to vote. Leaders of
Muslim Community told that they were framing strategy to vote for BSP as a
Dalit-Muslim formula can be successful as before in 2007 state elections but
when alliance was announced they have to again Disseminate agendas or polarize
votes towards one party to defeat BJP. BSP was the one to gain benefit from the
anti-incumbent vote of SPs five-year rule.
It is also a fact that somewhere alliance of SP and Congress
has helped Saffron Party to swipe votes. BSP also tried to attract Muslims, SP
was no step behind. This strategy of focusing only on minorities led to Hindu
consolidation and worked for BJP. BJP had many advantages before as Modi Ji and
Powerful Campaign, this alliance added more Butter to Bread.
Game Changing Year 2017
The Elections in Uttar Pradesh gave a historic mandate to
people and the party. BJP won 327 seats without announcing its Chief Ministerial
candidate. Yogi Aditya Nath was one of the Fire-brand leader of BJP and its
image led him to the post of CM of the most important state in the aspect of
Politics. He sworn on 19th March along with 46 Ministers. Keshav
Prashad Maurya, the BJP Uttar Pradesh Chief and Dinesh Sharma are deputy CM of
Uttar Pradesh.
Yogi Aditya Nath, earlier known as Ajay Singh Bisht, born in a
Garhwali Rajput Family in the village Panchur, Uttarakhand. He joined
Gorakhnath Mandir at age of 24 and became politically active. He raised
Hindutva issues. He was responsible to devise agendas of ‘Love Jihad’ and ‘Ghar
Wapsi’ which faced lots of criticism. In the last speech before taking oath as
CM of the Uttar Pradesh he said he will not discriminate when it comes to
Development and raising its state.
The Uttar Pradesh Election has been the winner in attention
seeker, surpassing Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Even Leaders of BJP did not
dream of such victory on how they score such a mandate. It is to be noted that
this credit should be given to Modi Ji and Amit Shah Duology. BJP without
declaring any CM candidate executed powerful campaigns under the Two. This
election set the trend for the state to score absolute majority in recent
elections. First started by Mayawati in 2007 with full majority then SP in 2012
and now with Bhartiya Janata Party.
It will not be unethical to say that this election was of
revenge which people of the state took from previous parties. Public wanted to
teach lesson to Mayawati for its corrupt regime involving Yadav Singh for
corruption charges over 500 crores and Mulayam Singh for unlawful deals which
includes Raja Bhaiya and Mukhtar Ansari. Almost a Decade, Both Parties were
identified with their respective voter section as BSP with Dalits and SP with
Yadavs and Muslims. This made others alienated from parties which saw BJP as
the rising hope for them.
BJP`s Winning Strategy
|
Ethical Politics
has been defined as “practice of
influencing people truly and legally” but has been demolished along with
Babri masjid in 1992, parties rose to power such as Samajwadi and Bahujan Samaj
party and their only target was Muslim vote bank which was a large population
in Uttar Pradesh. In Uttar Pradesh politics Muslim voters has always been the
game changer and is believed that they are the one who are stopping BJP from
taking throne of Uttar Pradesh as well as in Lok Sabha election too. It is a
matter of fact that in many states BJP failed to polarize vote of minority
section but now it seems that they were not up to this, of course they tried
well in presenting themselves in favor of Muslims whether it was matter of
triple talaak or offering grants to maulvis but BJP always focused on its
Fire brand politicians such as Aditya Nath and Uma Bharti, always standing on
their Hindutva agenda so that the majority vote cannot be lost, the strategy
is marvelous. Answers for opposition as well as for public ready and all this
under one banner “Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas” and says the party has equal
thoughts and beliefs for everyone but this does not prove when it comes to
the matter of ticket distribution whether in Lok Sabha election or Vidhan Sabha
election as only two Muslims were given ticket in Lok Sabha election in which
only one won the election and in Vidhan Sabha not even a single ticket given
to Muslims. Uttar Pradesh BJP head Keshav Prasad Maurya told that tickets are
distributed on the basis of winning probability not on the basis of caste or
religion, well said, now only few members of minority section are left in
house. Uttar Pradesh has been home to over 18% of Muslim population of the
whole country and plays an important role in politics in the state. Uttar
Pradesh Vidhan Sabha election had undergone many transformation, particularly
with Muslim section, there are many reasons behind losing of SP in the recent
election, main reason being the Muslim distribution of votes as SP being the
most favorable party for them. However, it was timely assumed by Akhilesh
Yadav which took decision for coalition of party with Congress to polarize
the vote but plan was not successful due to presence of number of regional
parties. Only Akhilesh does not hold responsibility of losing election its
party member too where BJP totally focused on all caste and launched their
fire brand members, SP was all on to Akhilesh and Dimple Yadav and not even
involving Mulayam Singh Yadav. This made Samajwadi Party more vulnerable to
lose its loyal voters. On the other hand, BSP has already lost its Dalit
voters which has clearly been saw in Lok Sabha election as majority of Dalit
voters were shifted to BJP most of which were Lodhi, are in large number
where Mayawati previously has its roots of politics and this time its most
favored region that is Noida, was too occupied by BJP although it has a
powerful face over there which is Pankaj Singh, son of Rajnath Singh. This
election snatched grounds of many politicians which were once Dominant power
in the Country such as Banda and Amethi from Madhusudhan and Rahul Gandhi
respectively. Garima Singh won Amethi seat by the difference of 5065 votes
and Congress was not even the runner up, and in case of Banda, Prakash
Dwivedi won by large number with 32828 votes. Besides this many other great
changes were seen in this recent election as, point one it was a violence
free election which made the most peaceful election over a decade, point two
no bans were imposed on any politician or advertisement of parties unlike in
2014 election as Azam Khan and Amit Shah were restricted to perform rallies
due to their controversial comments. Third, this time no Muslim candidate
were there from BJP side and Fourth, kings of crimes were facing charges but
still fought elections such as Gayatri Prajapati of SP was on run as he was
accused for corruption and other major crimes, other being the Bazi Siddiqui
which faced the same charges as mentioned in the first and Mohammad Ayub for harassment
and last but not the least Aman Mani Tripathi for murdering his wife. This
shows how politics is Unfolding in most important state by politics. The main
reason for this research is to know how BJP came to power with a big majority
and after a long period of “Vanvaas” of 14 years. Demonetization was the
boldest step taken by BJP till now which was extensively used by opposition
to target the party on account of effects to BPL people (Below Poverty Line)
but BJP scored a large number in regions which has BPL voters such as
Bundelkhand.
BJP winning seats
in Muslim majority regions was the distribution of votes among other regional
parties which accounted SP to lose its main vote bank which was unable to
Polarize vote.
Many
Constituencies were studied to know the distribution of votes. It is to be
noted that in some regions BJP won just by the difference of three-digit
scores such as Domariyaganj and Meerapur. Regions were studied and figures
are mentioned below
|
Domariyaganj Constituency
|
|||
Candidate
|
Party
|
Status
|
Difference
|
Raghuvendra Pratap Singh
|
BJP
|
Won
|
171
|
Saiyada Khatoon
|
BSP
|
Runner Up
|
|
Meerapur
Constituency
|
|||
Candidate
|
Party
|
Status
|
Difference
|
Avtar Singh Bhadana
|
BJP
|
Won
|
193
|
Liyakat Ali
|
SP
|
Runner Up
|
|
Here, Raghuvendra defeated
Saiyada just by 171 votes.
Liyakat Ali faced defeat by 193
votes
Shrawasti
Constituency
|
|||
Candidate
|
Party
|
Status
|
Difference
|
Ram Feran
|
BJP
|
Won
|
445
|
Mohd.Ramzan
|
SP
|
Runner Up
|
|
Here, difference is 445
Muhammadabad-Gohna
Constituency
|
|||
Candidate
|
Party
|
Status
|
Difference
|
Shriram Sonkar
|
BJP
|
Won
|
538
|
Rajendra Kumar
|
BSP
|
Runner Up
|
|
Only 538 votes made Rajendra Kumar lose its ground
constituency.
Major distribution of votes was seen in conflict regions
such as Sardhana and Kanth Constituencies
Sangeet Som (BJP)
97,921 votes Won
Pradhan (SP) 76,296 votes Lost
|
|
Hafiz Imran
Yaqoob (BSP) 57,239
votes Lost
Here Muslims
population account 1.25 lakhs
Devendra Kumar Nim (BJP) 76,465 votes Won
Ravindra Kumar Molhu (BSP) 75,870 votes Lost
|
|
VIshwa Dayal Chhotan (INC) 61,787 votes Lost
Here Muslim
population is 49.14% of district population.
Suchi (BJP) 1,05,548 votes Won
Ruchi
Vira (SP) 78,267 votes Lost
Rashid Ahmad
(BSP) 49,788
votes Lost
Here, Aishwarya Choudhary who was the one to be contested
for the elections but was jailed for being the part of Riots in the Constituecy
in 2016, Supported Hindus, as told by the resident of Bijnor.
Muzaffarnagar
Gaurav Swarup
Bansal 87,134
votes Lost
Rakesh Kumar
Sharma 21,038
votes Lost
Muslim
Majority Constituencies
Above mentioned districts BJP claimed victory in five of them
with minor differences.
Explanation-Rise in regional parties make problems for a
party to polarize vote as many parties in state holds a large number of Muslim
votes which results is distribution of votes such as in Kanth Constituency
Rajesh Kumar won on BJP ticket by getting 76,959 votes and defeated BSP member
Mohd. Aneeshurrehman by 3000 votes. In this case vote was largely distributed
as BSP member got 73,959 votes, Mohd. Nasir of SP got 43,820 votes, Faizuallah
Chaudhary got 22,900 votes of independent and Peace Party member got 13,931
votes. Considering this it is clearly depicted that confusion between SP, BSP
and other regional parties has landed voters on the doorstep of BJP which made
them win the elections. BJP won in 62 constituencies out of 82 where Population
of Muslims in one third and which gives a point to believe that Muslims have
voted for BJP but according to the research it was observed a split among the
Muslim vote. A mixed review was received by representatives of minority as
Kamal Farooqui, member of All India Muslim Personal Law Board (AIMPLB) says
that Muslims had voted for BJP “Musalmaan
abhi aur vote karega agar BJP thoda samajhdari se chalegi.” Now, this
statement is achievement for BJP as party does not had a single candidate of
Muslim community but yet they succeeded in getting its vote. Other statement
was received by Athar Hussain from Centre of Objective and Research Development
(CORD),” The BJP seems to has scored in
constituencies where Muslim population was below 30%.”
State of Congress
Rahul Gandhi is very fond of narrating a story that how he
conquered his fear. He told, one night his grandmother Indira made him stand
alone in the Garden and no one turned for help, not even his mother Sonia, He
cried a lot but soon he realized that he has to face it and then found his way
out of dark.
Now at the age of 47, Rahul is the President of Congress
Party. Rahul Gandhi finding its Party is shrinking in the Country and with
First time sitting in the opposition as the President of the Party it is the
Time for him to adapt or Bring Change. The old party is now present in the
Karnataka, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Puducherry and Punjab. Worse and Worse is
happening. BJP Regains its Gujarat and snatched an important state Himachal
Pradesh from Congress, with Punjab on positive side, this is as dark as the
same night which Rahul faced in his childhood, now how he will be finding his
way out is a question.
Where Congress stands still is merely 8% of the country
population with BJP on 80%, then what is wrong with the party, where they are
lacking. Congress has not learned from its previous mistake committed in Uttar
Pradesh of taking late actions. Rahul was announced as President of Party after
a long Time from its position of Vice President. Sonia is out of Party’s
strategy notifier, it means there is lot to do with the current Leadership.
Unseen Crisis in the
Party
Rahul’s friend and National Conference Leader Omar Abdullah
said after election of state that there is no one today to take on Modi Ji,
this was a destroying comment for Congressmen but the fact is True. Congress in
the Time does not hold any answer to the Duology of Prime Minister Narendra
Modi and Shah of BJP. As per the report of Indian Express Many Congressmen who
worked closely with Rahul said that Sonia style of working is different from
Rahul. One makes A Another makes B and the strategy implemented is Sonia
Gandhi. Now with Rahul as the new King of the Party they say Party needs a Long
Time to Adapt Rahul as Sonia was President for 19 Years.
People say the biggest strength of Sonia Gandhi is she
recognizes her own weakness and allows others to move forward but Rahul, knows
it all, he thinks he is a Democrat but in reality, he is a big Autocrat. Reported
by Indian Express Former Congressmen such as Assam Hemant Biswa, have spoken
that he faced lack of accessibility to Rahul. Sharma from Bharatiya Janata
Party says they are happy as long as Rahul is in Congress. They regard Rahul as
an insurance cover for BJP, as long as Rahul is there, there is no effective
opposition.
As a President of the Party which pulls many agendas at one
Time, Rahul can do Right, as an autocrat. Indian Express reported that Other
complains of indecisiveness yet other that he takes less Time in Decision. They
added Sonia always waits till the dusk is settled, everyone arrives and then
starts, there is always a sense of Justice under Sonia says state unit
President of the Party. Those who believe in him, says that he has done
precious little changes. He wanted to change the structure of the party before
2014 elections. The same are saying that what he has done after becoming
President, the same people are around, so what to trust on Rahul.
There were person supporting Rahul to take charge – Chiefs of the states such as V M Sudheeran in
Kerala and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan but these themselves needed support to
become Party President of states.
Some Analyst say if there will be a Democratic election
within the party, Rahul can be challenged not for President but for even Vice
President of the Party.
Loss of Narration
Most of the Congress Leader feel the defeat because BJP
Polarizing votes, some are talking that the loss of narration lost the party.
After BJP came to power in 2014, Congress is failing to
rejuvenate Parties agenda and giving new reasons to vote for the Party. Manish
Tewari told in an interview to Indian Express that after BJP in Central,
Congress is playing with two things, BJP Patriotism and Economy loss with
numbers. As long as Party does not have any new agenda, the Party will not have
any stories to tell.
Kishore Chandra Deo, a former Union Minister and a veteran
Congress Leader in Andhra Pradesh says to Indian Express that narrative is just
one drawback other which is major is lack of communication to the public. UPA
Government has done lots of program for Rural and tribal areas. BJP took its
agendas framed it and implemented to much more effective strategy of
communication, The Swachh Bharat Mission was Nirmal Bharat Mission of UPA, but
does anyone know. The Congress has failed to communicate, Leadership changing
does not resolve its problems.
Andhra Pradesh doesn’t have single MLA and MP from the
Congress Party, whereas in May 2009 they won 156 out of 294 Assembly seats and
33 out of 42 MP seats in both Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. After the
separation, Neither Rahul and nor Sonia has visited the state. This implies, it
will take several years for Congress to comeback in the state. The YSR Congress
Party is now the main opposition party. In the elections of Brihanmumbai
Corporation for 227 seats that was called as a mini-Vidhan Sabha fight,
Congress won only 31 seats. The Congress of the state failed to work as a team,
no one paid attention, Neither Congress nor AICC Leaders about coping with
elections.
Kerala is the only state where Congress has a strong stand in
position, just because of Religion base model of Politics. Congress allies with
Muslim League which targets north and Kerala Congress which influences the
Christians. Congress in Kerala has a mix up of members from different Regions
and castes.
It is a League that the party never mastered the state of
Uttar Pradesh, which once elected Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi and which
now Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi as MP from the same state where Party holed
Power for almost 30 Years after Independence.
Multi-Directions
The way for Uttar Pradesh has been avoided for a while.
Former Congress MP from Andhra Pradesh told Indian Express that he heard Party’s
Candidate has got 660 votes in an Assembly by elections in Allahabad West in
Allahabad in 2005 which was the land of Nehru Family. He asked to senior
members of the party, the reason for defeat he received a reply that they are
not shocked as Party has not put any Dalit or backward candidate in the state
for a long Time. Now After 12 Years, the Party witnessed the worse defeat. It
is clear that Rahul and Party knew that Congress does not exist on the
political Landscape of the state. The alliance with SP was not for UP but for
Delhi. This means the Congress never aimed Right.
Congress is not clear about aim. Once they started
campaigning in Dalit region then they took Sheila Dixit for Upper Castes and
then ended up with Alliance to backward caste Party, this shows the confusion.
In this voter are not blamed from the side of the party, Party itself should be
blamed because of the confusion they created.
In Manipur Congress ended up as the single largest party but
lost to the BJP. The reason is here, Congress totally ignored the state, Rahul
only came once and delivered half an hour speech and left, whereas BJP – Ram
Madhav, Prakash Javadekar, Himanta Sharma camped for a Long Time which effected
a lot. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah rallied, so goes same with Rajnath Singh.
The Party Never paid attention towards its moving members
which hold important constituencies Sarma, Haryana a Jat Leader and current
Union Minister Birendra Sing, former UPCC Chief Rita Bahuguna Joshi and her
brother Vijay Bahuguna in Uttarakhand and the latest to join other side is
senior Karnataka veteran SM Krishna.
Members who are not paid attention
Uttar Pradesh- ND Tiwari and GR Pant,
Maharashtra -Vasntrao Naik and Sharad Pawar,
Bihar- Jagannath Mishra,
Andhra Pradesh- YS Rajasekhra Reddy,
Madhya Pradesh- Digvijay Singh
are some faces which been ignored in Recent Time. There is
always a feature issue between Party Chief and Chief minister of the state here
Congress is in Power.
Bahuguna Joshi who joined BJP in Uttar Pradesh and now a MLA
told to Media that Congress in Uttar Pradesh has been worked from Central, the
Party in the state always guided by the Central. There are few people who rules
the Party and the Power rotates, workers get demoralized and leave or forget to
fight. This can be factual as it points towards Amarinder Singh in Punjab, but
he to have to fight for the control of the party removing Pratap Singh Bajwa
who was appointed by Rahul.
Former Congress MP Priya Dutt too stresses on the state
Leadership she made a point on Indian Express “The Decisions of the party are
pending for Long Time to take actions where Modi Ji and Amit Shah Decides and
implement it in hours. The Congress also never revived the members of the Party
in the states.”
Lok Sabha MP and Senior Congress Leader KV Thomas also agreed
to change in Leadership of Central cannot affect states, there should be both
revival of Central and State Leadership. Both should be allowed to take Decision
independently and effectively as reported by Indian Express.
Himachal Pradesh Congress was only dependent on 83-Year-old
Virbhadra Singh who was standing anti-incumbency, the graft cases against him
and his fight with PCC Sukhwinder Sukhu. The 204 elections shown where the wind
was blowing. BJP won all Four seats of Lok Sabha to which Congress not
realized.
Madhya Pradesh Digvijay Singh failing to counter
Shivraj Singh Chauhan from three consecutive Times.
Gujarat saw Congress in Power 22 Years ago,
the Party fail to gain one seat in 2014 Elections, Although the party gained
support in the Districts and taluka Panchayat polls 2015, indicates unrest
among youth over various issues. The Congress thought with absence of Active
Narendra Modi and Amit Shah in the state help them, but both UP and Gujarat had
blowed them away.
Rajasthan PCC Chief Sachin Pilot takes command
from last years civic polls. The Congress scored 45% votes to 47% votes of BJP
it has also taken three out of Four by polls held in Rajasthan. The Game is
divided with Pilot, Ashok Gehlot and CP Joshi.
Chhattisgarh Congress is out of Power, the fight
has always been close, The Chhattisgarh Janata Congress, led by the formidable
Ajit Jogi who is taking balls in his token in the last Year. Congress lost many
Prominent Leaders in the Naxal Attacks at Darbha in 2013. Only two faces
present those of Jogi and CM Raman Singh.
Nagaland, Sikkim and
Meghalaya In Sikkim state Congress does not have a
single MLA. In Nagaland eight MLA have joined Naga People Front. In Meghalaya
Congress has a coalition. There is a Growing rift between Chief Minister Mukul
Sangma and Pradesh Congress Committee Chief DV Lapang. The BJP has A Powerful
Ally as NPP.
Madhya Pradesh Election Strategy
|
Now this method to be used in coming
Madhya Pradesh election, this state has total of 230 seats in Vidhan Sabha so
after studying the caste distribution in the state Candidates are divided
such as Arun Yadav who is current President of State Congress party should
lead the 35-35 candidates who will belong to Yadav and non-Jatt community as
state comprises of 30% population such as Shakya, Lodh, Dhankar, Nishad and
Kevats. Now, 40% of upper caste is there so Jyotiadityarao Scindia will be
leading 90 members from upper caste who belong to Thakurs and Brahmins.
Jyotimani will be leading 70 members from lower castes to target 30% of
population such as Audhelia, Dhobi, Kotwal, Kumar and Pardhi, Here Jyotimani
will be focusing on districts such as Datia, Ujjain and Tikamgarh.
Major key persons-
·
Jyotiadityarao Scindia
·
Arun Yadav
·
Jyotimani
·
Supriya sule
·
Kamalnath (if
possible)
This strategy is
demonstrated below through chart.
|
Another Major step congress party has to take is to keep hold
on Kamalnath who is one out of two MP from congress party. Kamalnath is
planning to move to BJP after Malikarjun Kharge was made Lok Sabha president of
party, Kamalnath has a strong hold on Upper caste and a positive image as once
he was considered third son of Indira Gandhi people used to say “Indira ke do haath ek sanjay aur dusra
kamalnath”. Congress has to plan something for Kamalnath to remain in
party. Previously
Congress had 150 publications which were owned by Congress members and their
relatives which was once used by Congress to propagate agenda of showing
Narendra Modi as “Maut ka Saudagar”
but these publications failed to understand the wave of 2014 elections which
had Narendra Modi becoming as PM of Nation, now these publications got effected
by many ways first, BJP got an additional support after winning election as
publications were negative about the party but later all were proved as wrong.
Second, these publications lost trust among audience and to gain that they started
publishing in favor of BJP which resulted in losing trust of Congress Party
third, they were now on target of BJP which is now in power and fourth, they
have to again establish as publication houses as now they are merely considered
as Public Relation agencies. Congress have to take many strong steps towards
media as they are facing problems with them, Other than this Congress should go
for Mahagadhbandhan which was previously practiced by Nitish Kumar in Bihar
2015 elections and proved to be successful, Congress should come up with all
parties that had faced defeat from BJP and should form coalition. UPA needs to
be transformed with adding and subtracting parties as there is a fact behind
this that enemy of enemy is friend. Parties such as Samajwadi Party does not
have any way to go to and considering previous events it is easy to join hands
with them on national level and same goes with TMC party of West Bengal, these
parties are the strong parties in their regions which will be easy for Congress
for polarizing votes.
Mahagadhbandhan
|
|||
State
|
Opposition party
|
Current seats
|
|
Lok
Sabha
|
Vidhan
Sabha
|
||
Jharkhand
|
Jharkhand Mukti mocha
|
14
|
81
|
Karnataka
|
Janata Dal (Secular)
|
2
|
40
|
Bihar
|
Rashtriya Janata Dal
|
3
|
80
|
Tamil Nadu
|
AIADMK
|
37
|
In Power
|
DMDK
|
0
|
89
|
|
Odisha
|
Biju Janata Dal
|
20
|
20
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
Telugu Desam Party
|
16
|
In Power
|
Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress
|
9
|
67
|
|
Telangana
|
Telanagana Rashtra Samithi
|
11
|
In Power
|
Kerala
|
Communist Party (Marxist)
|
9
|
58
|
Indian Union Muslim League
|
2
|
18
|
|
Assam
|
AGP
AUDF
|
1
|
14
|
3
|
13
|
||
Haryana
|
Indian National Lok Dal
|
2
|
19
|
Maharashtra
|
National Congress Party
|
6
|
41
|
West Bengal
|
All India Trinamool Congress
|
33
|
In Power
|
Communist Party (Marxist)
|
9
|
26
|
|
Above mentioned parties are the one who are Anti-BJP so
Congress will not face any major problems for coalition. Some parties are
already in power but with BJP being so powerful now they have to be prepare for
it so for them also coalition is doing or die situation. Mahagadhbandhan has
proved very beneficial for congress when it was experimented in Bihar.
All the
above opinions provided for political parties are my opinions
There is no
intention to harm someone or to some community as model given above does not
include some of them.
Conclusion
·
Election
in India has always been the most interesting period for every profession
present in country. Media houses are very much dependent on Political news, it
is because their viewers want that too. Indian politics has been so unbalanced
because of the decentralization of power, Politics of state and politics of
central have so much difference and so goes with parties, each political party
have their own ideology and morale depending on their respective regions they serve.
BJP is becoming the dominant party in India, the party is not only occupying
power in central but other large states of the country with now Uttar Pradesh
as cherry on cake.
·
Having
majority in both the houses they have demonstrated their power through various
ways whether it is passing of GST bill or appointing President and Vice
President of their choice. BJP has set a benchmark in politics by combining
their central and state politics into one. With these recent victories over
victory have proved that BJP is running on some special technique of polarizing
votes but other than this the most interesting point to be remember is in the
leadership of Amit Shah and his negotiating techniques both were demonstrated
in Arunachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, in first one he transferred half of
MLA`s of opposition along with CM to his party and within a day new Government
was formed in the state. In Uttar Pradesh the most powerful and credible
members of BSP and Congress changed their party just before elections were
going to take place such as Swami Prasad Maurya and Rita Bahuguna Joshi
respectively and helped party to polarize votes almost of all caste and
religion.
·
Distribution
among votes caused regional parties to face defeat, Muslims seems to confused
as whom to vote as there were no chance of congress and BSP with no power in
central voting it was waste the rest is SP this thought was of one part of
community others have their own theory which caused distribution of votes.
Yadav family feud has also been profitable to other parties. Now it is a very
tough situation for BSP and Congress to revive in their respective situation.
For all other parties which are against BJP it is time to join hands with
Congress or vice-versa, for Congress plan is given above.
·
Change
in leadership and Mahagadhbandhan can prove a great move in politics but with
wait of the right time. It is matter of discussion that why SP and congress
alliance fail to polarize vote which is mentioned above along with why congress
is failing to hold its minority vote. Congress should come up with new and
fresh members in the party which are not deployed in the elections. Politics
has changed after Indira Gandhi and so congress should also adopt that change.
India within four years have seen a constitutional and political change on a
large scale and this change is just a beginning of a new political era of the
Country. The new strategies discovered, it is again a time of test for them
whether they will prove beneficial for existing Power in upcoming elections of
Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh or party will need a new technique.
Reference
Television News Broadcasted within the periods of Elections
Period-15th of August 2016 to 31st
March 2017.
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